Democratic Nomination

Now that Barack Obama has clinched the nomination, I have a few closing thoughts and comments on the Democratic race. One, I am glad that Hillary Clinton stuck in the race till the end. I wasn't particularly happy with the way she carried herself at points (good article on her candidacy), like claiming she had won the popular vote when Obama wasn't even on the Michigan ballot. But, I'm glad that every state, and even territories that can't vote for president, actually got to vote and have it matter.

I like the fact that the primaries are spaced out and it allows a lot of time for candidates to campaign in each state, and not just the swing states. A lot of people got to see candidates and go to rallies who would have otherwise never had the chance, and I think that this greater level of involvement in government is a huge plus. However, I hate the fact that some states always have their primaries first, and they have a greater weight in determining the winner. I think a lottery system would be a major help in democratizing the process.

I thought that Gail Collins made some very nice points about Hillary Clinton's candidacy in her recent op-ed piece. In particular, I liked this section:
So many battles against prejudice are won when people get used to seeing women and minorities in roles that only white men had held before. By the end of those 54 primaries and caucuses, Hillary had made a woman running for president seem normal.

I believe that the next woman who runs for president will have a much easier path thanks to Clinton. She did put up with a lot of unnecessary crap from the media. I couldn't believe how many professionals made pantsuits jokes. I don't think I heard any jokes about how the male candidates dressed or looked. But she kept going. The next woman to run will have a clearer idea of what to expect and how to overcome obstacles.

People begged Clinton to drop out. I would have appreciated it if she were more modest about her chances of winning once it was pretty clear that she was likely to lose. The degree in which she believes in herself is admirable, although it perhaps borders on delusional. But I do appreciate her sticking in the race and giving every primary and caucus a meaning when so many others wanted her to quit, which would have been the less democratic option.

I don't think that she was the best candidate for president, but I think that it was very important for her to run and establish the normalcy of women going toe-to-toe with male candidates for the presidency. Hopefully it will soon be normal to have female presidents too.

Early Look at 2008 Election Possibilities

Here are two electoral maps, one of McCain vs Clinton, and another of McCain vs Obama, from a nifty website called 270toWin.

It's interesting to see which states come into play based on who the Democratic opponenent is. For instance, with Obama as the nominee, Texas is currently considered (by these analysts anyway) a possible swing state. I don't think there is really any decent chance that Texas could go Democratic in this election, but there is still a lot of time before the election. As things currently stand in these maps, in a Clinton-McCain match-up, Clinton would be leading 239-168 with 131 swing votes still out there. In an Obama-McCain matchup, Obama would be leading 208-151 with 179 swing votes up for grabs. To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 electoral votes.

This may all sound very nice and dandy for the Democrats, but they don't have 270 yet, and those swing votes are going to be very hard to get. I'm happy to see that North Carolina is considered a swing state either way. Hopefully we'll get some more campaign action this fall.

Obama Catching Up

If you've read the news lately, you've heard about how Obama is crushing Clinton in one state after another, having swept 8 of the last 8. This is very impressive; however, the race is still quite close. The AP delegate count favors Obama 1,275 to 1,220; the more conservative NY Times count favors Obama too with a margin of 934 to 892. The media have played up the closeness of the race for quite some time, but until the last few weeks, Clinton was far ahead nationally.

Here is a look at his dramatic rise over the last month and a half:

clipped from www.pollster.com

Even in the beginning of January 2008, a mere month and a half ago, Clinton was ahead by about 20 percentage points nationally. According to this recent polling data, they are basically tied, although Obama may have a slight edge. This month, there are two more Democratic primaries, both occuring February 19th. They are in Hawaii (29) and Wisconsin (92 delegates). Though Wisconsin should be very close, Obama is favored to win both at this point; however, when all is said and done, the delegates will be split fairly evenly between both candidates.

Although Obama has some momentum going, Clinton is banking on the next few delegate-heavy states to take a lead. However, her lead in these has been shrinking too:

On March 4, there are four major primaries, the two largest are Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates). Obama has made serious inroads into Clinton's huge lead, but has yet to catch her.

In Ohio:

clipped from www.pollster.com

In Texas:

clipped from www.pollster.com

Further out, there is a Pennsylvania primary on April 22 with 188 delegates at stake. Here, Obama has has yet to cut into Clinton's lead:

clipped from www.pollster.com

The other big issue is the 796 superdelegates, important individual party members who each count as a delegate themselves. About 300 of these have committed to a candidate so far, a ratio of about 2:1 in favor of Clinton. There is some talk that the Democratic superdelegates will, in the end, all align with whomever wins the most delegates in the state by state match up to avoid taking democracy out of the process. At this point, it seems unlikely that either candidate will be able to garner the 2,025 delegates necessary to win the nomination based solely on the results of the state primaries and caucuses. We'll have to wait and see how the primaries go, and if that's still inconclusive, see what the Democratic superdelegates decide. I think it's generating excitement and I think it'll be be nice for some states (like North Carolina, perhaps) to have a say in the nomination.