Thoughts on Superbowl XLII (42)

This game reminded me very much of the XXXVI (36) game with the Patriots and Rams. The Rams were huge favorites, but the Patriots outplayed them and won, much to my surprise. It basically served as the Patriots debut as a dynasty, and no one ever heard much from the Rams again. Could the Giants be beginning a dynasty as the Patriots crumble?

Well, it's difficult to say, but I don't really think so. Just because history happened once doesn't mean it will repeat itself, though it might. Eli Manning played the best football of his young career during these playoffs. He seems to have earned the respect of his teammates and perhaps his regular season numbers will begin to rise next year. It appears that they'll be pretty good for the next few years at least, but winning the Superbowl requires beating a lot of great teams.

It's hard to see the Patriots losing too much though. The Rams were decimated by injuries in seasons after their last Superbowl, and their defense fell apart. I suppose it's possible here, but the Patriots, assuming they keep their key players, could find themselves at 18-0 next year too. I doubt it will happen in such pretty fashion, but I think they'll be pretty good.

2/5/08 Update: I suppose that one other issue I meant to touch on was that of the Patriot's demeanor. As Randy Moss said, "I think their intensity, from the beginning snap of the game until the end, was really higher than ours." If you can't get excited about being in the Superbowl, that's a bad sign (obviously very insightful). As Bill Simmons pointed out, in Superbowl XXXVI, Tom Brady started head-butting Drew Bledsoe in the tunnel before the game because he was so psyched to be there. After they won the game, he had this look of "I can't believe this." This year, it would have been weird for the Patriots to be so elated and surprised about winning; after all, it was expected since the beginning of the season. Certainly can't imagine Tom Brady screaming and jumping for joy had he won this one. Fighting for those moments of pure joy is what keeps people going when the going gets tough. If you aren't going to experience that elation or vindication, you might not work as hard to get there.

clipped from bp1.blogger.com

Wonder if we'll see this "I can't believe it" face again

Roads to Glory: Hardest Path to the Superbowl (recently)

It was an impressive performance by the entire Giants team, taking out the 18-0 Patriots. The Giants playoff run was incredible.

Complete records of the teams the Giants beat (all road games except Superbowl):
9-7 @Tampa Bay
13-3 @Dallas
14-3 @Green Bay
18-0 Patriots

That's a combined record of 54-13 (.806). I did a little bit of research of recent years and found out that the 2005 Steelers played teams (all on the road too) with the combined record of 54-13 also. The Steelers were a slightly better team in the regular season, going 11-5 compared to the Giants 10-6. So what the Giants did wasn't unprecedented, but still very hard. Also, I give the Giants a slight edge in level of difficulty for defeating the 18-0 Patriots because the Steelers were actually 4 point favorites in their Superbowl against the 15-3 Seahawks.

Record of playoff competition in en route to winning Superbowl:
2007 Giants: 54-13 (.806)
2006 Colts: 51-17 (.750)
2005 Steelers: 54-13 (.806)
2004 Patriots: 44-8 (.846)
2003 Patriots: 41-13 (.759)
2002 Buccaneers: 37-15 (.712)
2001: Patriots: 41-11 (.788)

After that point, I stopped researching. However, it is worth noting that the 2004 Patriots faced the competition with the best record, though they only played 3 games, one at home, one away, and the Superbowl.
Competition faced by the Patriots, who were a 14-2 team in the regular season:
13-4 Colts
16-1 @Steelers
15-3 Eagles

To compare the 2007 Giants with the 2004 Patriots, we'll throw out NY's wildcard road game against Tampa Bay so that they have three games a piece: the division playoff, league championship, and Superbowl. Then the record of NY's competition is 45-6 (.882), with two of those games on the road. Since NY had to play four playoff games instead of 3 like the Patriots, it becomes abundantly clear that NY faced a much more difficult path to winning the Superbowl than any team in recent years.