Rep Price Introduces Legislation to Honor Heels

Somewhat hilarious, certainly amusing. I'm certainly proud of the Heels, but doesn't Congress have very pressing issues to tackle right now? Maybe this sort of thing happens every year.

NBA Team Scouting Report

Scouting out NBA teams for UNC's players:

Ty Lawson: Given Lawson's height and speed, I think he'd be best suited to a run-and-gun environment just like he had at UNC. I can see him wreaking havok in the open court with his usual coast-to-coast cruising, but plodding half-court set teams might not allow him to utilize his strengths. According to John Hollinger, the fastest NBA teams are Golden State (101.1 possessions/game), New York (99.2), Indiana (98.9), and Phoenix (98.3). The slowest NBA teams are Cleveland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Detroit, and Portland, and I think those would be the worst match for him. Of the good matches, I kinda like the idea of him on the Knicks because I hear Mike D'Antoni is supposed to be a great coach, and the other teams I'm not so sure about coaching-wise.

Wayne Ellington: I was pretty impressed with Wayne's performance in the second half of the season. I saw the Miami game where he found his shot, and since then, he's been fantastic. He hit 8 of 10 three pointers in the Final Four. And he was coming off of screens too, not just hitting open jumpers. As NBA shooting guards go, he's a little short at 6'4", so run-and-gun might be best, but if can he nail shots off of screens, then he'd probably be able to get enough separation to get his shot off in the half court set. I'd stick him on the Charlotte Bobcats for all of the Carolina connections, including coach Larry Brown.

Tyler Hansbrough: What stands out to me is that Tyler was 9 of 23 from 3-point range this year, a 39% hit rate. This is pretty impressive for a guy who isn't known for his perimeter play. I'm really happy he has built up this skill while at UNC. He also hit 84% of his free throws, so I think his three point percentage can continue to improve. I see Hansbrough working out well on a veteran team that needs some younger high energy players who will do all the little things and be selfless. I pick San Antonio for the team-first attitude and the great coaching.

Danny Green: He's a solid 3-point shooter, and he collects a lot of steals and blocks, which is an unusual combination. As far as I can tell, one of his weaknesses is ball handling, so maybe if he's on a team with great ballhandlers, he won't be required to dribble too much and he can spot up for open shots. I'm having a tough time finding the perfect situation, but for some reason I keep coming back to Toronto. They've got a good point guard in Jose Calderon (8.8 assists per game, leads point guards in assist/turnover ratio at 4.16), they're a low turnover team, and they play at a medium pace. I'm not really confident about this choice, but hey, I don't get to choose anyway so what does it matter. He'd probably be good on a variety of veteran teams, like Boston, San Antonio, etc.

I hardly know anything about the NBA, so maybe I'm way wrong. Good luck to all the Tar Heels!

MJ and Dean

"There's no way you guys would have got a chance to see Michael Jordan play without Dean Smith" - Michael Jordon, upon his election to the Basketball Hall of Fame today

I'm just always amazed at the reverence that former players have for Dean Smith. At one game this year, I think it was the Virginia game, they had all of the UNC players who had been elected to the Hall of Fame present (MJ was not yet elected) for a ceremony of recognition. And during the ceremony, everyone deferred to Smith. The players all pointed to him, and I think it was Billy Cunningham who even started bowing to him. Dean, of course, was embarrassed and in "aww shucks" mode. It's impressive how much his players admire him.

UNC and Pace

Ken Pomeroy has a very interesting piece on UNC and pace, identifying a few specific areas at which UNC uniquely dominates (scoring points after opponent scores or some stoppage).

Comment on UNC-Oklahoma

I don't think I've ever seen so many missed dunks in one game. Any by only one team. Roy is going to have them practice their dunking skills. At least UNC played great defense.

School is in Session

Jordan and Perkins in class at UNC. Gotta love that smile on Perkins. I'd never seen this picture before, which is a shame. From a Tar Heel gallery at SI.

Tyler Zeller Update

For those of you not at the game extremely early, Tyler Zeller came out in athletic clothes shortly after the JV game to shoot around with the team. He no longer has a cast on, and his shot was looking really good. He nailed 3-pointer after 3-pointer. He didn't seem to jump very high, but as far as I could tell, his wrist was looking pretty good. (Afterwards, he came back out before game time with a suit on to sit on the bench).

I take this to be a very good sign. There is talk that he might medical redshirt this year so that he can play four more years. But really, no one knows what the next four years will bring. The team might not be this close to a title again. If he redshirted, Zeller would essentially be trading this year for his 5th-year senior season, which is a complete unknown. If his goal is to win an NCAA title, this year may very well be his best shot. And the team could really use another scoring threat since the bench's output stinks. He also might be able to replace Deon Thompson in the starting lineup, who hasn't done anything since ACC play started. It's only early February. Zeller could work his way back into the line up in the coming weeks. Then we could tinker with lineups to get things right. If we lose a couple games, it's all right. Then by NCAA-time, he's meshed with the team and we're ready to go the distance.

Mr Peppers

What an athlete:

Kenny George

UNC-Chapel Hill played UNC-Asheville yesterday. The Tar Heels won, frankly by a bit too much. I felt pretty bad for UNC-A. 116-48? That's too brutal. I didn't see the game at all, but maybe we could have allowed them to score a little more? Put in the bench earlier?

And I also learned yesterday that UNC-A's Kenny George, their 7'7'' center (7'9" in shoes), had part of his right foot amputated due to a MRSA infection back in October. He was apparently pretty sick and was going to be in the hospital for another month. That's very sad. I wish him well. Here is a youtube clip of him playing (you can figure out which player he is).



He also had a good write-up in the NY Times last year. No company makes shoes in his size, so in high school Shaq sent him a bunch of his size 22s and they were reshaped into size 25s so George could wear them. Wow.

UNC vs Kentucky

UNC lead by double figures four minutes into the game and never looked back. Unfortunately, they didn't really look forward either. After the 10 minute mark, both teams played sloppily, and basically to a draw, but UNC was already up by about 20 at that point. I felt that the UNC energy level sharply declined once a comfortable lead was established, and then they played down to the level of their opponent. I think that a lot of this may have to do with Tyler Hansbrough missing. He is so intense that I just can't see UNC slacking off like that with him on the floor. I'm not saying that UNC should have tried to pummel Kentucky, but they should have tried to play a clean, well-executed game. The incredible hussle and pizzazz of the first 10 minutes was amazing. Even Wayne Ellington was playing passionate defense and had a steal. Then it all sorta fizzled out.

By the way, Will Graves and Ed Davis were great. Deon Thompson had a great first half. I hope Tyler Zeller recovers quickly.

Nothing but Net

I prefer to rave about the under-credited or unexpected guys who do well. I don't often rave about Tyler Hansbrough because everyone else does, and it's obvious that he's a huge part of our success. However, after his unexpected barrage of swished jumpers against Louisville, I need to make an exception.

Here is a quote from Basketball Prospectus' John Gasaway on Hansbrough's performance:
Hansbrough's fusillade of 17-foot jumpers, launched from the seams of the Louisville zone, represents an ominous development for North Carolina's next opponent (potentially, their next two opponents). If Hansbrough can make jump shots, it's unclear what, exactly, an opposing defense is supposed to do.

That line gets me quite excited, though I don't want to get too overconfident just yet. I can't wait for the day when people are saying "Yeah, Hansbrough, he and Wayne Ellington and Stephen Curry, those guys are the best pure shooters in college basketball."

I love this game

From Adam Lucas's piece on UNC's visit to San Antonio:

Now, being part of that thing called Carolina Basketball means understanding where you fit among those who came before you. In the summer, former players return for pickup games. The trash talk flows, but there is only one ultimate final word.

"The guys who come back from that '05 team, if you say anything to them, they just point at their title banner," Wayne Ellington said. "There's nothing you can say to that. That's why you come to North Carolina, to win championships."

And let's hope we do just that. The stage is now set: all #1 seeds that spent most of the tournament crushing opponents. High stakes and great teams. I feel like this year's #1 seeds are substantially better than last year's. This year, the #1s have only 9 losses combined., compared to 18 combined losses among the #1 seeds last year before the tournament began. Whichever team can survive this Final Four certainly deserves the title.

El Gran Baile

That's how you say "The Big Dance" in Spanish, in case you were wondering. Exciting times this March. UNC has just earned a Final Four birth, along with UCLA. Personally, I'm hoping that fellow #1 seeds Kansas and Memphis also make it to San Antonio for what would be one of the most hyped Final Fours ever. Never before have all four #1 seeds made it. I want to be playing the best of the best. I want double and triple overtime games. I want it to be considered the best tournament of all time. And I want UNC to win. Let's hope for the best.

UNC-Duke

Congrats to the Tar Heels for defeating Duke. Luckily, I was able to watch the gamehere in Nicaragua with Spanish-speaking commentators. I wish I could have made a recording of the play-by-play so that you could experience it too. Hopefully I'll be able to see several more games here as we enter the post season. Although it was a good victory, I'm a little worried about our team being overconfident since everyone is like "oh yeah, now we're number one and we deserve it." We'll see what happens...

Quentin Thomas' Championship Stat Line

1 minute, 1 rebound, 1 turnover, 1 foul

I'm glad to find out that he did in fact play in the 2005 championship game. That's quite an accomplishment in itself. He has come such a long way since then, and I'm very happy for him. He reminds me a lot of a couple of other players who went from goats/unknowns as freshman to heroes/fan favorites by their senior year:

Jackie Manuel: I remember fans being terrified every time he had the ball on offense back when he was a freshman. He learned to pick his spots and contribute offensively, and defensively, he was the official shut 'em-down type. By his senior year, everyone loved him for his relentless work ethic and defense, and he became such a fan favorite that he had his own pirated t-shirt line, "Jackie Manuel has a Posse."

David Noel: So he was never really a goat, but he was a mostly unknown role player for his first three years, who did a good job fitting in and didn't mess things up. Although never an offensive juggernaut, he was a good defender, averaging 16.9 minutes per game and 3.9 pts during his junior year, and playing 20 minutes in the championship game. He senior year he was thrust into the spotlight as the returning leading scorer from the championship team. Although many didn't even expect the team to make the NCAA tournament after losing its top seven scorers, Noel led this team of freshman and walk-ons to a memorable season, going 23-8, including ruining JJ Reddick and Sheldon Williams' senior night in Cameron. The Heels reached the NCAAs, but were upset in the second round by eventual Final Four Cinderella George Mason.

Byron Sanders: Sanders was similar to Manuel in that he wasn't very skilled offensively, but he made up for it in heart. Sanders was thrust into a starting role in his freshman year after Sean May broke his foot, but replacing Sean May is a huge task and fans were a little disappointed and frustrated. Nonetheless, Sanders worked hard and improved over the years. He never quite gained the same minutes in his senior year as others on this list, but he did have some memorable moments, including posting up and nailing 2 shots in the 2006 Senior Night upset at Duke. By his senior year, he had his own crowd chant every time he hit a shot in the Dean Dome: "By-ron Sand-ers!"

Among other recent players, I considered putting Reyshawn Terry and Wes Miller on this list, but didn't mostly because their careers followed a slightly different trajectory. Statistically, both peaked in their junior years on the 2006 team, but then had to make way for Lawson, Ellington, Thompson, and Stepheson during their senior years in 2007. Had they played the same minutes their senior years, they probably would have shown continued improvement. Also, they weren't upsetting fans with their play in the beginning of their careers, they were just little-used due to the high levels of talent on those teams. So, they didn't quite remind me enough of Thomas.

All right, all of these comparisons are a bit of a stretch, but you get the idea: Work hard, be humble, and good things will happen.

Quuuuuuuue

This makes me really happy:
from Adam Lucas on Tar Heel Blue:
"• Quentin Thomas had seven assists and three turnovers. He was making his sixth consecutive start at point guard. In the last seven games (including the Florida State game in which Ty Lawson got hurt), Thomas has 46 assists, 23 turnovers and 56 points. He is averaging 6.6 assists in those seven games. His assist-error ratio of 2 to 1 is the best among all ACC point guards in the last seven games. Thomas has seven or more assists in five of the six games in which he has started this year."

The best assist-turnover ratio among all ACC PGs in the last 7 games!? Wow, Q has come so far and I am so happy for him. UNC is winning, Q is playing great. I wish I could be there for Senior Night to wish him well. The teams really seems to have gotten behind him and has been playing great lately.

UNC Basketball Museum

Today, I visited the recently opened Carolina Basketball Museum, just a couple buildings away from the Dean Dome. It's a very fancy place with all sorts of memorabilia and highlights. Admittedly, parts are a bit cheesy, but it's definitely the first museum to get me teary-eyed reliving all my favorite plays over the years. It was funny to watch other people watching highlights too, and see their reactions to games played over a decade ago, like the guy shouting, "Oh come on, Montross, get that ball!"

Overall, it's a fun place. As my sister said, "This is first time I've actually enjoyed going to a museum!"

For me, one surreal part of the experience was watching footage from the 2005 championship game. I completely missed this game and most of the 2005 season while overseas, so I had followed their progress from game recaps, but had never seen the highlights before. For the first time, I got to see Felton's key steal and free throws that sealed the game, as well as some other highlights. I couldn't believe that I had really never seen any of that before. Almost every Carolina fan except for me has vivid memories of that game and the celebration afterwards, but all I remember is waking up the next day and reading the espn.com recap and box score and then being really happy and smiling hard. I was particularly proud of Sean May's stats and how this final game consummated his development into a complete beast. But it was a little awkward because I couldn't even shout or get too excited in my room because no one else even knew what college hoops were. I tried to explain how happy I was to my apartment mates, but they were like "Uh, good for you!...I guess." Although I was very happy about the championship, I feel like I missed what a lot of my fellow UNC students consider their favorite college memory.

Besides my memories from reading espn.com the day afterward, most of my happy memories come from reading the Daily Tar Heel front page spread, which was posted on the wall of my psych lab, about a year after the game. I remember being unusually fascinated by the paper, like the Sean May fist pumping photo where it looks like his jersey in in his mouth, and the Felton pullout quote about his key steal and free throws. It was all a little foreign, but I could just happily stare at that poster completely fascinated by the emotions on the faces of the players and coaches.

This comparison is pretty extreme, but it'd kind of be like going into a coma in 1968, then waking up in 1973, and completely missing all of the lunar landings. You read about it and see pictures of joyous people celebrating and astronauts with moon rocks. Then a few years later, you happen to see actual footage of the guys bouncing on the moon and people celebrating, and you think, "Wow, that's what it was like!" followed by "...too bad I totally missed it. I wonder if it'll happen again sometime so I can celebrate too..."

Let's hope for the best!

Virginia Tech - UNC

UNC played one of it's best games of the entire year, even though the team was shorthanded, toppling Virginia Tech 92-53. Since I just had a post about UNC's offensive and defensive efficiency, I figured I would mention this game since it was notable. Offensively, UNC was back at its average with an efficiency of 116.4. Defensively, we easily had our best game of the year with a season low efficiency of 67.1 A lot of that was due to the fact that Virginia Tech played terribly, but perhaps some was due to improved defense.

The Lawson Effect

Ty Lawson of the UNC basketball team has missed several games this season and he is currently injured. UNC clearly hasn't played as well with him gone. Points per game have gone down and turnovers have gone way up. Let's have a little look into how he affects the Heels from a statistical point of view.

The best place to start is with Ken Pomeroy because he runs an excellent college basketball statistics site. I have taken the follow numbers from his UNC Game Plan page

Here is a chart I made detailing UNC's offensive (pink) and defensive (blue) efficiency. Efficiency is basically a measure of how many points you score per possession. You want a high offensive efficiency and a low defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession).


As you can tell, the last couple of games, Lawson has been missing and the offensive and defensive efficiencies are nearly equal, and the scores reflect that as we've played very close games. There is also a large drop in offensive efficiency in late November when Lawson missed games against BYU and Ohio State (he played 2 minutes against BYU before being injured, so I'm not counting it).

To better determine Lawson's effect on the team, lets look at the overall season averages, conference averages, averages with Lawson, and averages without Lawson. Any game where Lawson only played a few minutes and then left due to injury was counted as game without him. Explanation of the columns is available here.

		Offense
	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TO%	OR%
Sea. avg	76.36	115.48	52.26	18.42	42.26
ACC avg	75.00	110.92	49.16	19.03	41.86
w/Lawson	77.26	119.98	54.01	17.67	43.52
w/oLawson	73.50	101.25	46.72	20.82	38.28

	Defense
	Eff.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR
Average	94.05	48.32	20.96	28.40	23.71
ACC	100.49	48.92	17.07	29.63	24.57
w/Lawson	93.97	49.08	22.08	28.45	25.27
w/oLawson	94.32	45.92	17.40	28.23	18.75

This offers some more insight into where Lawson matters most. Here are some of the notable differences in playing without Lawson:
On Offense:
- UNC has about 4 fewer possessions per game
- UNC's offensive efficiency is much lower, going from about 1.20 points per possession with him to only 1.01.
- Effective field goal percentage (values 3 point shots 50% more than 2 pointers) drops from 54.01 to 46.72
- The number of possessions on which we turn the ball over increases from 17.67% to 20.82%.
- One thing that is a bit confusing is that with Lawson, a 5'11'' point guard, we do a better job of collecting offensive rebounds than without him: 43.52% to 38.28%
- Our free throw rate is about the same on offense, 40.31 with Lawson to 39.63 without him.

On Defense:
- Our defensive efficiency is about the same, 93.97 with to 94.32 without
- Curiously, opponents shoot better when Lawson is playing: 49.08% with to 45.92% without.
- However, opponents turn it over more frequently against Lawson: 22.08% with to 17.40% without
- Opponents have the same offensive rebounding rate with or without Lawson playing; however, they do have a slightly better free throw rate when Lawson plays.

Conclusions:
Obviously, we're really hurting offensively without Lawson. Anyone watching recent games could tell you that. It's impressive that almost all of our offensive numbers are better (except FTR) with him playing, even offensive rebounding.

On the other hand, our team doesn't seem to be suffering much from his absence on the defensive end. UNC doesn't create quite as many turnovers and opponents make more free throws, but their field goal percentage drops.

On the whole, the extra playing time for Quentin Thomas may help to make UNC a more complete team in the future. From here on out, all the games are against high quality competition.