If you've read the news lately, you've heard about how Obama is crushing Clinton in one state after another, having swept 8 of the last 8. This is very impressive; however, the race is still quite close. The AP delegate count favors Obama 1,275 to 1,220; the more conservative NY Times count favors Obama too with a margin of 934 to 892. The media have played up the closeness of the race for quite some time, but until the last few weeks, Clinton was far ahead nationally.
Here is a look at his dramatic rise over the last month and a half:
Here is a look at his dramatic rise over the last month and a half:
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Even in the beginning of January 2008, a mere month and a half ago, Clinton was ahead by about 20 percentage points nationally. According to this recent polling data, they are basically tied, although Obama may have a slight edge. This month, there are two more Democratic primaries, both occuring February 19th. They are in Hawaii (29) and Wisconsin (92 delegates). Though Wisconsin should be very close, Obama is favored to win both at this point; however, when all is said and done, the delegates will be split fairly evenly between both candidates.
Although Obama has some momentum going, Clinton is banking on the next few delegate-heavy states to take a lead. However, her lead in these has been shrinking too:
On March 4, there are four major primaries, the two largest are Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates). Obama has made serious inroads into Clinton's huge lead, but has yet to catch her.
In Ohio:
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In Texas:
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Further out, there is a Pennsylvania primary on April 22 with 188 delegates at stake. Here, Obama has has yet to cut into Clinton's lead:
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The other big issue is the 796 superdelegates, important individual party members who each count as a delegate themselves. About 300 of these have committed to a candidate so far, a ratio of about 2:1 in favor of Clinton. There is some talk that the Democratic superdelegates will, in the end, all align with whomever wins the most delegates in the state by state match up to avoid taking democracy out of the process. At this point, it seems unlikely that either candidate will be able to garner the 2,025 delegates necessary to win the nomination based solely on the results of the state primaries and caucuses. We'll have to wait and see how the primaries go, and if that's still inconclusive, see what the Democratic superdelegates decide. I think it's generating excitement and I think it'll be be nice for some states (like North Carolina, perhaps) to have a say in the nomination.
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